The future – at least important parts of it – is knowable. Prediction is a talent that can be cultivated. In the general population, without special training ~2% of us are gifted predictors -Superforecasters in the terminology of former Ohio State psych professor Philip Tetlock. Let’s stop whining about complexity and pace of change and get busy making preparations for what should be the greatest year in any of our lives.... Read more

Shadow Chancellor John McDonnell upon hearing Shadow Foreign Secretary Hilary Benn’s powerful speech in parliament commented, “I’m always anxious that the greatest oratory is going to lead us to the greatest mistakes.” He compared Benn’s remarks to those of Tony Blair in 2003 preceding the invasion of Iraq. In the digital sphere I am concerned about the exact opposite: how the lack of powerful oratory materially reduces an organization’s ability to harvest the full value of the digital wonders surrounding us.... Read more